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Trump en de domme importheffingen

Trump en de domme importheffingen

(English after Dutch)

De importheffingen of “Tariffs” die de Trump administratie heeft uitgerold is zouden immens hilarisch zijn, als het niet zo ontzettend schrijnend zou zijn.

Hilarisch omdat het gewoonweg zo ontzettend dom is; van het door ChatGPT gegenereerde beleid tot de amateuristische formule waarmee een eerstejaars economiestudent nog niet eens weg zou komen. De bizarre consequenties van importheffingen op eilanden waar alleen pinguïns permanent wonen (de Heard en MacDonaldeilanden) tot heffingen op plekken waar Amerikaanse soldaten de voornaamste bewoners zijn (Diego Garcia).

Ook de achterliggende gedachte, dat een handelstekort altijd slecht is, is dom. De fundamentals van een land worden afgestraft. Bijvoorbeeld; de Amerikaanse geologische dienst heeft een rapport opgesteld over kritieke mineralen voor de Amerikaanse industrie. Van de 50 mineralen die kritiek zijn voor de Amerikaanse economie is de Verenigde Staten bij 12 van deze mineralen voor 100% afhankelijk van import [1].

Er is géén enkele importheffing ter wereld die de delving van deze kritieke mineralen opeens van andere landen naar de Verenigde Staten brengt. Die mineralen zitten namelijk gewoonweg niet in de Amerikaanse bodem. Dom dus.

Oh, en de Amerikaanse auto-industrie wordt vaak genoemd als slachtoffer van andere landen. Wij zouden bewust vele barrières opwerpen om Amerikaanse auto’s hier te ontmoedigen, terwijl we wel onze voertuigen hun kant op sturen. Ook dit narratief is veel te simpel. Als oud-automonteur en auto-enthousiast weet ik dat er een tijd is geweest dat Amerikaanse auto’s gewoon domweg van ontzettend lage kwaliteit waren, en bizar veel benzine gebruikten. Andere landen, zoals bijv. Japan, en Duitsland, produceerden domweg gewoon kwalitatief betere auto’s. Een droom van vrije markt kapitalisme waar de VS normaliter zo fier op is, toch? Nee, blijkbaar is dit alleen ok als de VS de winnaar is.

Ook worden lagelonenlanden onredelijk hard getroffen. Bijvoorbeeld Lesotho dat wordt geraakt door een belachelijke 50% importheffing. Waarom? Omdat Lesotho meer exporteert naar de VS dan het daarvandaan importeert. De afgelopen jaren hebben Amerikaanse bedrijven juist geïnvesteerd in nieuwe fabrieken in Lesotho, er wordt daar veel kleding geproduceerd voor de Amerikaanse markt. Maar Lesotho is een arm land, mensen daar kunnen domweg vaak géén dure Amerikaanse producten betalen, géén iPhones, géén Harley-Davidsons, géén Ford F150 pickups, nee zelfs een schoolkind snapt dat. Helaas zit er een kleuter in het witte huis en iedereen om hem heen is alleen bezig met eigenbelang of te bang om de grote leider tegen te spreken.

Bizar trouwens dat Trump’s grote vriend Vladimir Vladimirovitsj Poetin niet geraakt wordt door importheffingen, maar het zou al langer duidelijk moeten zijn dat Poetin een begaafde poppenspeler is en Trump een makkelijk te bespelen pop.

Gelukkig lijkt er onder de Amerikaanse bevolking veel minder draagkracht te zijn voor het ondergaan van economische pijn om Trump te blijven ondersteunen. Anderzijds laat de bevolking van de landen op wie deze heffingen gericht zijn vaak een sterk “Elbows up” of “Rally around the flag” effect zien. Mensen hier zijn meer geneigd om zichzelf te willen verdedigen tegen deze economische aanval.

Laten we proberen om internationaal meer samenwerking te creëren met andere landen die onze democratische waardes delen, zowel op economisch gebied als op het gebied van internationale veiligheid. In de tussentijd kan Amerika even in de pauze-hoek, totdat de Amerikaanse regering weer genezen is van zijn huidige stormvloed aan domheid, misschien na de verkiezingen in 2028. Laten we hopen dat de VS dan nog een functionerende democratie is.

 

[1] U.S. Geological Survey. Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. https://doi.org/10.3133/mcs2025. Opgehaald op 07-04-2025.

Trump and the dumb tariffs

The tariffs that the Trump administration has rolled out would be hilarious if they weren’t so incredibly poignant.

Hilarious because they are just so incredibly stupid; from the ChatGPT-generated policy to the amateurish formula that a first-year economics student wouldn’t even get away with. The bizarre consequences of import duties on islands where only penguins permanently live (the Heard and McDonald Islands) to duties on places where American soldiers are the main inhabitants (Diego Garcia).

The underlying idea that a trade deficit is always bad is also stupid. The fundamentals of a country are being punished. For example; the US Geological Survey has produced a report on critical minerals for American industry. Of the 50 minerals that are critical to the American economy, the United States is 100% dependent on imports for 12 of these minerals [1].

There is no import duty in the world that suddenly brings the mining of these critical minerals from other countries to the United States. Those minerals are simply not found in the American soil. It is just stupid.

Oh, and the American auto industry is often referred to as a victim of other countries. We are supposedly deliberately putting up many barriers to discourage American cars here, while we still send our vehicles their way. This narrative is also far too simplistic. As a former auto mechanic and car enthusiast, I know that there was a time when American cars were simply of incredibly low quality, and used an insane amount of gasoline. Other countries, such as Japan and Germany, simply produced better quality cars. A dream of free market capitalism that the US is normally so proud of, right? No, apparently this is only okay if the US is the winner.

Also, low-wage countries are hit unreasonably hard. For example, Lesotho is hit with a ridiculous 50% import duty. Why? Because Lesotho exports more to the US than it imports from there. In recent years, American companies have actually invested in new factories in Lesotho, where a lot of clothing is produced for the American market. But Lesotho is a poor country, people there often simply cannot afford expensive American products, no iPhones, no Harley-Davidsons, no Ford F150 pickups, no, even a child of school-going age understands that. Unfortunately, there is a toddler in the White House and everyone around him is only concerned with self-interest or too afraid to contradict the great leader.

Also, it is bizarre that Trump’s great friend Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is not affected by import duties, but it should have been clear for a long time that Putin is a gifted puppeteer and Trump an easily manipulated puppet.

Fortunately, there seems to be much less of a will among the American population to endure economic pain in order to continue supporting Trump. On the other hand, the population of the countries targeted by these tariffs often show a strong “Elbows up” or “Rally around the flag” effect. People here are more inclined to want to defend themselves against this economic attack.

Let us try to create more international cooperation with other countries that share our democratic values, both in the economic field and in the field of international security. In the meantime, America can take a break until the American government has healed from its current flood of stupidity, perhaps after the elections in 2028. Let us hope that the US is still a functioning democracy by then.

 

[1] U.S. Geological Survey. Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. https://doi.org/10.3133/mcs2025. Retrieved on 07-04-2025.

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New publication: CBS

Comparing imports based on microdata with FIGARO

Working together with an inspiring team from the Dutch Central Bureau for Statistics (CBS), we were able to publish a report which compares imports based on microdata with FIGARO; the Full International and Global Accounts for Research in input-Output Analysis.

This dataset provides input and output data of industry and product characteristics, and supply and use data compared between countries.

In this project I was involved with the pseudonymisation of the original data, so it can be shared freely with (inter)national stakeholders.

The article describing this project can be found here, while the full .pdf report can be found here.

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Successfully defended my PhD thesis!

Becoming a doctor

Last Wednesday, June 21, I had the honor to successfully defend my thesis! The title of my dissertation is

“Early-warning signals derived from actigraphy and electrocardiogram time series data: is it worth a transition in clinical practice?”

In my dissertation I describe our studies in which we investigated whether it is possible to anticipate transitions in depressive symptoms based on heart rate and movement data. My dissertation can be found here. The cover can be found here.

It was a great day. Thanks to Harriëtte Riese and Arie van Roon in particular for the excellent support and guidance during the past years. Thanks for the inspiring opposition for the relevant questions during the defence. And of course, thanks to all the wonderful colleagues, co-workers, and others for a great and inspirational journey! 

Afgelopen woensdag 21 juni heb ik de eer gehad om met succes mijn proefschrift te hebben verdedigd! De titel van mijn proefschrift is

“Early-warning signals derived from actigraphy and electrocardiogram time series data: is it worth a transition in clinical practice?”

In mijn proefschrift beschrijf ik onze studies waarin wij onderzocht hebben of het mogelijk is om transities in depressieve symptomen aan te kunnen zien komen op basis van hartslag- en bewegingsdata. Mijn proefschrift is hier terug te vinden . De omslag kan hier teruggevonden worden.

Het was een fantastische dag. Met dank aan Harriëtte Riese en Arie van Roon in het bijzonder voor de uitstekende ondersteuning en begeleiding in de afgelopen jaren. Bedankt voor de inspirerende oppositie voor de relevante vragen tijdens de verdediging. En natuurlijk alle geweldige collega’s, medewerkers, en anderen bedankt voor een geweldige en inspirerende reis!

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Bits and pieces

First Flight and Oxygen on Mars

This week is an exciting one for those interested in exploration that goes beyond our blue planet.

Firstly, NASA was able to let a helicopter – called Ingenuity – fly on Mars [1]. An extraordinary performance, especially given that the Martian atmosphere is much thinner than the one on Earth, which makes flying the helicopter that much harder. Ingenuity’s maiden flight on Mars opens up the prospect of much easier, and quicker exploration of the Martian surface than would be possible with the brave Mars rovers, such as Curiosity and Opportunity. Yet, while it was indeed the first powered flight on another planet, it was not the first time a craft from Earth has flown on another planet, that honour goes to the Soviet Vega I and Vega II balloons which flew on Venus in 1985 [2, 3].

The second exciting event is that NASA’s Perseverance rover was the first to be able to produce oxygen on Mars [4]. Through a device called a MOXIE (Mars Oxygen In-Situ Resource Utilization Experiment), it is possible to convert some of Mars’ carbon-dioxide rich atmosphere into oxygen. Producing oxygen on Mars itself could drastically decrease the need to ship in oxygen from Earth, freeing scarce storage space on Mars-bound craft. It might also be one of the first foundational steps in (partially) terraforming Mars; making it suitable for Earth life.

Yet, such terraforming endeavours should always be well thought through; that is when oxygen was first introduced on Earth it was quite poisonous for almost all existing life; causing a mass extinction event, also called the Oxygen Catastrophe [5]. Let’s hope the future of space exploration is one of careful deliberation and cooperation, instead of rash decisions and international competition.

[1] https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/#

[2] https://www.airspacemag.com/daily-planet/ireali-first-flight-another-world-180977540/?fbclid=IwAR0xGlnNWPqHRhIWz7vAjkTaT1_KiEgbn4kGl9PMVD9lNoDHEeXXChSP-bc

[3] https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/spacecraft/display.action?id=1984-128F

[4] https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-perseverance-mars-rover-extracts-first-oxygen-from-red-planet

[5] https://slate.com/technology/2014/07/the-great-oxygenation-event-the-earths-first-mass-extinction.html

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Open Science 2020 Updates

Repositories & Open science awards

The year 2020 is flying past, perhaps even more so because of the differences and restrictions imposed by the COVID-19 situation.

Yet, this year has also yielded some remarkable results on the Open Science front. That is, the ESM Item Repository (www.esmitemrepository.com) celebrated its 1st year anniversary! From a simple but captivating hackathon idea to improve transparency of ESM items, to a working repository which was visited more than 5.300 times in its starting year. Moreover, thanks to many helpful and motivated item contributors we already collected more than 750 ESM items, while we hope to reach the 1000 ESM items mark soon. And we hope to be able to present our own blog in the near future!

 

Additionally, another interesting Open Science initiative was presented by the University of Groningen Library (UB) and the Open Science Community Groningen (OSCG), in the form of the Open Research Award. This award is meant to highlight various ways in which science can be made more transparent or reproducible. Even more interestingly, the organizers have opted to draw the three winners for the prize through a modified lottery; thereby cleverly having us reflect on whether peer-reviewed ranking, commonly used in science, is an efficient way of distributing grants, and scholarship (read their blog here: https://openscience-groningen.nl/blog-open-research-award-celebrating-openness-and-randomness/).

Even more stunningly, the ESM Repository was one of the lucky winners of the draw! As such, we now have to opportunity to present our work during the online “Celebrating Openness” event on 22nd of October (see: https://www.rug.nl/library/open-research-award/). Feel free to join us and to learn more about Open Science during this amazing event!

 

Best wishes & stay healthy!

Yoram.

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End of the Year 2019 Celebrations

Open Science, Interview, & Publication

Only a few days ago, we said farewell to 2019 and welcomed the new year. However, the end of 2019 was especially fruitful, as we were able to publish our article about our automated actigraphy software package for R in the Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport (click here for full-text).

Additionally, 2019 was the first year in which our research institiute – SHARE; Science in Healthy Aging and Healthcare – did not only awarded top-publication awards, but also a brand-new Open Science award, during the annual SHARE PhD day. While I readily applaud such endeavours to promote Open Science, this occasion had an extra golden edge, as I – next to my colleague Stefania Barzeva – was one of the two recipients of this award! Many thanks for SHARE to make this Open Science reward a reality!

Lastly, I was invited for a short but interesting interview with Johanna Pykko for the SHARE newsletter. As it is always fun to discuss and brainstorm about research ideas and academia, I really enjoyed it (click here for full-text). The University of Groningen also covered the Open Science award 2019 in a seperate blog post (you can read it here).

Well that’s it for this small update; best wishes for 2020 to you all!

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Open Science Blogpost #1

Science; why the best is not yet good enough.

Lead author: Yoram K. Kunkels
Other contributors: ReproducibiliTea Groningen

This blogpost was published originally in the OSCG blog-series about open science (link). 

Science is currently our best way of acquiring knowledge. It is the continuing process that has brought us – amongst others – our understanding that the Earth revolves around the Sun, the Industrial Revolution, and modern Medicine, while surely in a few years, it will also bring us hoverboards.

Such successes would suggest that all is well, and that science is always on a certain path to bring us even bigger discoveries. However, it is not. 

The scientific enterprise is a rather awkward one; the systems and institutions wherein scientists work are anything but perfect. Indeed, beneath the facade of seemingly perpetual improvements is a reality mostly unknown to outsiders. A reality wherein negative results about newly developed medications are sometimes suppressed, causing patients to be exposed to life-threatening dangers [1]. A reality wherein scientific conclusions are cherry-picked to report only the most spectacular, eye-catching results while more critical ones are dismissed [2]. Yes, even a reality where outright fraud can pass science’s seemingly rigorous peer review quality-check system [3, 4].

Does this all mean then that science is incurable, that we should dismiss it altogether? Again, no it does not. Nor does it mean that scientists are all unscrupulous individuals who do not care about the quality of their work. On the contrary, most scientists are highly motivated about doing the right thing and they care about the topics they study and those involved. This means that science is currently the best we’ve got, but it is not yet good enough. Luckily, researchers – especially those at the start of their careers – are getting more and more aware of these issues and are finding each other to discuss possible solutions.

However, the reasons science is currently underperforming are complex and multifaceted, and will require dedicated attention and care from not only academics, but our broader society. To provide some insights on what is wrong and how to improve those points we have started a series on these meta-science (the science about doing science) topics. Some of the subjects we will discuss are:

  • What are the 10 most common misconceptions about Open Science? In her upcoming blog post, Dr. Jojanneke Bastiaansen explains such common misconceptions and possible solutions (link).
  • Code and algorithms are becoming increasingly important to conduct reproducible scientific studies; but who checks its’ quality? Dr. Rei Monden discusses these problems and offers intriguing solutions in her blog post (available early next year).
  • One perspective on how to improve science is by Dr. Maurits Masselink who argues that we should consider not doing science at all if we cannot do it well. (available early next year).

Some of the topics that we will address in future blog posts are: (1) why are scientists pressured to produce lots of low-quality research, (2) how can we leverage new technologies and methods to decrease the time pressure so commonly experienced by scientists, (3) Is science really transparent, and why is this necessary, (4) why some scientific results cannot be repeated, (5) Why are negative results not reported, (6) what happens when the science is sound, but communicating results goes wrong?

We are a group of motivated young researchers associated with the Open Science Community Groningen. We would love to share our perspectives on, and possible solutions for the current issues in science. 

Be sure to check in regularly, as we will routinely update our website with new, provoking, and interesting blog posts and articles. Are you already fired up to make a change in improving science? Come visit us at www.openscience-groningen.nl to learn more, or feel free to discuss these topics together at one of our bi-weekly ReproducibiliTea meetings https://osf.io/3qrj6/.

Best,

The ReproducibiliTea Groningen.

 

References

[1] McGoey, L., & Jackson, E. (2009). Seroxat and the suppression of clinical trial data: regulatory failure and the uses of legal ambiguity. Journal Of Medical Ethics, 35(2), 107-112. doi: 10.1136/jme.2008.025361 

[2] Goldacre, B. (2019). The dangers of cherry-picking evidence. Retrieved 24 September 2019, from https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/sep/23/bad-science-ben-goldacre 

[3] Vogel, G. (2019). Report: Dutch ‘Lord of the Data’ Forged Dozens of Studies (UPDATE). Retrieved 24 September 2019, from https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2011/10/report-dutch-lord-data-forged-dozens-studies-update 

[4] van Kolfschooten, F. (2019). Social psychologist relinquishes chair after data manipulation charges. Retrieved 24 September 2019, from https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/04/social-psychologist-relinquishes-chair-after-data-manipulation-charges

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Buyers Guide: Heart rate monitors

Points to consider

In a previous buyers guide, we have looked at some important points to consider when choosing a suitable actigraph for scientific research.

Today, however, we will focus on another substantial player in the wearable field, namely the ambulatory heart rate monitor. 

As traditional heart rate (HR) monitors are quite bulky and often feature many cables, they are not very suitable for measuring patients in their daily life settings. Hence, measurements taken with such devices often lack ecological validity (although their complexity does potentially offer better data quality; good enough for cardiologists to diagnose all but the most outlandish cardiac arrhythmias).

Ambulatory heart rate monitors sacrifice some of the detail of hospital-grade HR devices for to make them wearable under daily life settings. Thus facilitating the development of early warning systems for cardiac problems, or ambulatory collection of heart rate data.

If you are looking to use such mobile heart rate monitor in your own study, the following points might be worthwile to consider:

Same goal, different solutions

First things first, while your goal might be to simple measure HR, or perhaps more precisely, to collect series of Interbeat-Intervals (IBI’s), there are multiple ways to do so.  

Two common methods are Electrocardiography (ECG), and Photoplethysmography (PPG). In short, ECG measures the electrical activity of the heart, while PPG optically measures blood volume change. Both can be used to derive HR and IBI series, but do so in a different manner, which can have important consequences for your study.

Example of an ambulatory ECG monitor (the Cortrium C3).

Example of an ambulatory PPG monitor (the Ithelete finger sensor).

Moreover the data obtained with both device look very different. As ECG is based on electrical pulses, its signal shows very sharp and distinct r-peaks. As PPG measures blood volume change, its data shows much broader peaks. Also, because PPG is often measured at the extremities (fingers, earlobes), there is often a delay before the pulse is registered when compared to whose electrical signal travels much faster. 

ECG signal obtained with the Cortrium C3.

PPG signal obtained with the Ithlete finger sensor.

Better user comfort, better results

Depending on the design of your study, the time participants have to wear the HR monitor will differ. Some will opt for continuous 24 hour measurements, while others might want to measure participants for longer periods of time, possibly months.

While short term continuous measurements are very feasible and common, long term continuous measurements are often not feasible, for a number of reasons. For example, ECG measurements require the HR monitor to be attached to the chest of the participant with electrodes. The glue of these electrodes will cause skin irritations when used over longer periods of time, causing low participant compliance.

Skin irritation caused by ECG electrodes. 

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ESM Item Repository

Improving Transparency in Science: ESM Item Repository

ESM stands for Ecological Sampling Method – think of it as a tool for following the development of your mood over the day. Such as filling in a mood diary 5 times a day, but then on your smartphone. ESM is currently enjoying clinical and academic interest as it enables users to monitor mood intensively in an ecological valid environment.

However, the current infrastructure for systematically categorising and storing ESM questions – or items – is a hot mess; because there is no such infrastructure in place yet!

As you could imagine, having a plethora of scientists around the world creating, translating, and editing ESM items without proper infrastructure will hinder transparency and reproducibility. Especially as a clear overview of these items, their history of use and edits, is not systematically documented anywhere.

Hence, an inspiring team of researchers from the KU Leuven, and myself, have started the ESM Item Repository – an online database for ESM items.

ESM items can be easily accessed through an online portal. If you want to find out more, or perhaps even help adding items to the repository, check out our OSF page! More interested in the code? Check out our accompanying Github page here.

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ACTman: Automatic Event marker to Sleep log Functionality

Expanding ACTman's possibilities

Hi guys, I am excited to present to you here, our newest update for our ACTman package!

As you might know, we introduced the ACTman software for R as a useful tool for both preprocessing as well as analysis of actigraphy data. Hopefully ACTman will facilitate easier, quicker, and better reproducible actigraphy analyses.

A new piece of functionality we just added – and which I am very enthousiastic about – is the possibility to read in event marker files and automatically convert them to sleep logs within mere seconds!

This is an especially handy tool for those researchers who use the marker button to estimate the times of going to bed and getting out of bed. Instead of manually writting these times down, participants can just simply press the event marker.

And instead of having to manually transcribe the event marker times to a generic sleeplog, you can now have ACTman do it for you in a quick and reproducible manner!

And the best part is that you don’t have to do anything special for it. 

If you are using the MotionWatch 8, and ACTman detects no sleeplog in your working directory but does detect a marker file, it will automatically transform it to a sleeplog for you.

You also get user control over some decisions. For example, if marker buttons are missing, ACTman offers you the choice to fill them in yourself, fill in the missing value with a mean value, or to abort the analysis.

Furthermore, ACTman automatically removes any other marker between the first and lst mrker press of that day. Multiple false presses are thus no problem for ACTman.

Interested? Check ACTman out for yourself by clicking here!